Following the aftermath of Hurricane Debby, experts at AccuWeather are closely monitoring a new tropical rainstorm developing over the central Atlantic Ocean. This system is poised to potentially evolve into the next tropical storm or even a major hurricane in the days ahead, threatening the Caribbean with heavy rainfall, strong winds, and turbulent seas through the middle of the week.
On the evening of Saturday, August 10, AccuWeather released a predictive map for the trajectory of this storm, indicating significant weather risks for the Caribbean and Bermuda. Predictions suggest that by Monday, this system could strengthen into a tropical storm, with sustained winds reaching 39-73 mph according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Upon achieving tropical storm status, this system will be named Ernesto, following the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season naming convention.
Encountering exceptionally warm waters
Forecasters have raised alarms that by the start of this week, the storm could intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane as it passes over the unusually warm waters northeast of the Caribbean Sea and moves north past Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The sea-surface temperatures in this part of the Atlantic are currently between 28-30ºC (82.4-86ºF), well above the 26ºC (78.8ºF) minimum typically required for tropical cyclone formation.
“Ocean temperatures throughout the Atlantic are almost at record highs, just slightly below the temperatures of 2023,” stated Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather Meteorologist and Lead Hurricane Expert.
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He further explained that the Ocean Heat Content, which measures the heat stored in the ocean and considers the depth of warm water, is also near record levels in the Main Development Region. This means that not only are surface temperatures high, but these elevated temperatures extend deep into the ocean.
“High levels of ocean heat content like these can significantly aid the rapid intensification of hurricanes. Both Hurricane Beryl this year and Hurricane Ian in 2022 were able to strengthen quickly due to high sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content,” DaSilva added.
The storm is expected to continue its west-northwesterly path through at least mid-week. However, the impact on the western Bahamas, Florida, and the rest of the southeastern U.S. coast will depend on the upper-level steering winds in the atmosphere.
[clube_cta]As the storm nears and traverses the northeastern Caribbean Islands, wind shear is anticipated to remain low. After passing the islands, the storm is likely to be pulled northward by a pronounced southward dip in the jet stream.
“Next weekend’s weather along the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to be quite pleasant, so even if the storm stays well offshore, coastal areas could still experience rough surf and rip currents, which might disrupt beach activities as summer winds down,” noted AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.
By the end of the week, the storm is predicted to turn northward and then slightly northeast, potentially escalating into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) before heading towards Bermuda by the weekend.
Belscher also mentioned that while the storm is projected to move towards Bermuda, a slight southern deviation early on could bring it closer to the East Coast.
Intense rainfall and strong winds to affect the islands
As the storm moves westward and brushes past the Leeward Islands early in the week, it will bring several rounds of rain. The storm’s outer rainbands are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by late Monday, covering the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Monday night into Tuesday.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous areas. Expected rainfall totals include:
- 2-4 inches in Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla.
- 4-8 inches in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with mountainous areas potentially receiving 8-12 inches.
Such heavy rainfall could cause severe flooding, road washouts, hazardous travel conditions, and mudslides across the eastern and northern Caribbean Islands.
Wind speeds are also expected to increase significantly as the storm moves across the northeastern Caribbean, with gusts possibly exceeding 80 mph from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico. Should the storm strengthen and shift north later in the week, winds could surpass 100 mph, primarily over open waters.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes has rated the potential impact of this storm on the northeastern Caribbean as a 1.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather meteorologists predict an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season this year, with numerous tropical storms and hurricanes expected. Many of these storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification, fueled in part by the higher-than-average sea temperatures currently observed.
