In Miami, the ocean’s elevated temperatures are providing ample energy for an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season, as noted in the latest update from NOAA for the rest of 2024.
This update came on Thursday, right as Tropical Storm Debby was impacting the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, following its second landfall in the U.S.
Initially, before the 2024 season began, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) anticipated 17 to 25 named storms, with 8-13 escalating into hurricanes featuring winds surpassing 74 mph, and 4-7 of these reaching major hurricane status with winds over 111 mph.
The revised forecast now predicts 17 to 24 named storms, factoring in the four storms that have already occurred. The remainder of the predictions remains consistent.
Understanding hurricane naming
Typically, an Atlantic hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, with seven escalating to hurricane status. According to current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, NOAA projects a 90% chance that the 2024 season will exceed normal activity levels.
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So far, the season has produced four named storms, including Hurricane Beryl. Notably, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, devastating the Caribbean islands and causing at least 20 fatalities before making another landfall in Texas. Beryl’s remnants then traveled across the U.S. to the Northeast, resulting in fatal floods in Vermont.
Debby, on the other hand, hit Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on Monday before weakening to a tropical storm. It traversed Florida and lingered over the Carolinas, bringing floods and tornadoes. Debby re-entered the Atlantic and made a second landfall in South Carolina on Thursday, continuing to affect areas along the Interstate 95 corridor.
Factors influencing this year’s hurricane forecast
NOAA forecasters considered several factors for this year’s predictions, including higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures, a robust West African monsoon, diminished tropical Atlantic trade winds, and reduced vertical wind shear.
[clube_cta]“Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” stated Matthew Rosencrans, Lead Hurricane Season Forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”
Other expert predictions
This week, Colorado State University experts also slightly reduced their forecast for the number of named storms for the remainder of the 2024 season. Despite the adjustment, the season is still expected to be busier than usual.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is officially on September 10, which is historically the most likely date to observe a named storm. The hurricane season extends until November 30.
